Democracy Under Siege: How Tinubu's Emergency Rule Threatens Nigeria's Democratic Foundation

 

President Bola Tinubu's declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State, without a doubt, has heralded a critical inflection point for Africa's most populous democracy. The unprecedented intervention, announced on March 18, 2025 has exposed deep fissures in Nigeria's constitutional framework and raised alarming questions about the future of democratic governance in the region, writes Precious Eze.  

Constitutional Brinkmanship

The emergency declaration represents more than a localized political dispute. It is a profound challenge to Nigeria's federal structure, challenging the delicate balance of power between state and federal governments. Legal experts argue that President Tinubu has crossed a critical line by suspending Governor Siminalayi Fubara, his deputy, and the entire State House of Assembly—a move that appears to stretch the Constitution's emergency provisions beyond their intended scope.

Section 305 of the Nigerian Constitution permits emergency declarations under extreme circumstances such as war, natural disasters, or complete breakdown of public order. However, the wholesale removal of elected officials is not among the prescribed remedies. Senior Advocate of Nigeria Afam Osigwe and other constitutional scholars emphasize that such actions fundamentally undermine the democratic process.

The Political Chessboard

The crisis in Rivers State is symptomatic of deeper political tensions within Nigeria's ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). With the party holding a minority position in the National Assembly—155 of 360 House seats and 60 of 109 Senate seats—the emergency declaration's ratification appears increasingly problematic.

The constitutional requirement of a two-thirds majority (240 House and 72 Senate votes) seems mathematically challenging without significant bipartisan support. Critics argue that the voice vote approach represents a dangerous precedent of legislative rubber-stamping, effectively neutering the National Assembly's role as a critical check on executive power.

Broader Implications: Beyond Rivers State

Regional Volatility and Economic Risks

The intervention carries significant geopolitical and economic risks, particularly for the Niger Delta region. Historically, similar political interventions have sparked regional unrest and militancy. The area, crucial to Nigeria's oil-dependent economy, remains sensitive to political disruptions.

Key potential consequences include:

Investor Confidence Erosion: International observers and investment groups are closely monitoring the situation, with concerns about Nigeria's political stability.

Regional Tensions: The Niger Delta's complex history of resource control conflicts creates a powder keg of potential unrest.

Economic Vulnerability: Rivers State's strategic importance to national oil infrastructure means prolonged political instability could directly impact national revenue streams.

International Perception

The Association of Nigerian Professionals in Europe has already condemned the emergency rule as unconstitutional, warning of potential international diplomatic and economic repercussions. This global scrutiny threatens to tarnish Nigeria's image as a stable democratic nation.

Historical Context and Future Risks

Echoes of the Past

The current crisis bears uncomfortable similarities to the political instability that preceded Nigeria's First Republic collapse between 1966 and 1979. Political scientists warn that executive overreach can rapidly destabilize democratic institutions, especially in regions with complex historical and ethnic dynamics.

The growing pro-military sentiments across West Africa add another layer of complexity, raising fears of potential democratic backsliding.

Potential Paths Forward

Respected legal scholars and political analysts propose several critical interventions:

Judicial Review: Immediate constitutional challenge of the emergency declaration

Legislative Accountability: Rigorous scrutiny of the National Assembly's ratification process

Mediation: Diplomatic efforts to resolve underlying political conflicts in Rivers State

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Nigerian Democracy

As legal scholar Abiodun Odusote pointedly notes, "The Constitution does not give the President absolute power." The Rivers State emergency represents a critical test of Nigeria's democratic resilience.

President Tinubu stands at a crossroads. The current approach risks setting a dangerous precedent that could fundamentally erode the principles of federalism and constitutional governance. Swift, measured, and legally sound resolution is imperative to prevent lasting damage to Nigeria's democratic institutions.

The world is watching.